Where clinical trials go wrong.
Almost every US trial is public. A 2007 law, FDAAA 801, makes registration mandatory, so the record is close to complete. A substantial protocol amendment costs about $450,000 in direct work (Tufts CSDD), before the weeks of delay each one adds. Multiply how often a company amends by how many trials it runs, and the pain sorts into an order. The companies at the top are losing the most. Here is the commercial case and its focus.
pain = mean( rank(amendments), rank(enrollment failure), rank(startup lag) )Each signal is ranked 0 to 100 against every other cell, then the three are averaged with equal weight. No learned weights, no black box. A cell with fewer than two measurable signals reads insufficient, not zero.Less painMore paininsufficient data
| Oncology | 80 | 92 | 92 | 78 | 22,100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infectious Disease | 20 | 51 | 37 | 45 | 9,765 |
| Healthy Volunteers | 1 | 8 | 19 | 12 | 9,574 |
| Endocrine & Metabolic | 8 | 45 | 40 | 44 | 6,264 |
| Cardiovascular | 22 | 81 | 72 | 69 | 5,646 |
| Neurology | 29 | 80 | 86 | 58 | 5,616 |
| Immunology & Inflammation | 33 | 78 | 68 | 54 | 5,484 |
| Psychiatry | 26 | 64 | 51 | 54 | 3,418 |
| Respiratory | 11 | 61 | 50 | 59 | 3,366 |
| General & cross-cutting | 12 | 75 | 67 | 54 | 2,899 |
| Dermatology | 14 | 31 | 27 | 17 | 2,749 |
| Rare & Genetic | 35 | 95 | 88 | 94 | 2,471 |
| Nephrology & Urology | 8 | 78 | 65 | 34 | 2,222 |
| Hematology | 28 | 96 | 87 | 92 | 2,155 |
| Musculoskeletal | 36 | 57 | 68 | 61 | 1,854 |
| Gastroenterology | 10 | 67 | 45 | 50 | 1,852 |
| Ophthalmology | 36 | 70 | 51 | 42 | 1,624 |
| Pain & Anesthesiology | 4 | 41 | 39 | 53 | 1,190 |
| Women's & Reproductive Health | 7 | 42 | 62 | 84 | 1,007 |
In brief
- What this is
- An interactive map of 454,031 public trials, every figure carrying the sample it rests on (methodology).
- The deliverables
- The map with per-cell evidence, the ranked account list, and a one-page board brief (PDF).
- How it is built
- A deterministic pipeline over the public record. The amendment figure is a disclosed proxy, and contract research organizations are a named blind spot (limits).