Phase I

Oncology

pain 80#13volume 8,271#3

Pain rank 13 of 76, volume rank 3 of 76 by industry trials. Trials here amend about 1.2x and fail enrollment about 1.9x the map median.

What this is worth

The amendment proxy, priced. Order of magnitude, anchor cited, assumptions on the table.

Per 100 industry trials in this cell, about 48 rewrite their eligibility criteria at least once. At the industry average of $450k direct cost per amendment, with the 6+ weeks of delay each not even counted, that is at least $22M at stake per 100 trials. Across the roughly 8,271 industry trials here, the floor is $1.8B.

If amendments fell by10%$177M30%$532M50%$886M

Assumes $450k direct cost per amendment (industry average; Phase II median runs lower, Phase III higher, and delay cost is excluded), applied to the proxy rate. The proxy counts only trials with at least one eligibility change, so this understates the true exposure. How this is derived.

The signals

Industry sponsors first, since that is the commercial buyer, each figure shown against the map median. All-sponsor figures follow. A trial counts as concluded once it has finished, whether completed, terminated or withdrawn.

Industry sponsors80pain index
Eligibility amendments
48%vs map 40%proxyn = 42sampled
Enrollment failure
26%vs map 13%n = 5,543concluded
Startup lag
56 dvs map 45.5 dn = 5,403with dates
Median duration
29.0 mon = 8,108completed
All sponsors85pain index
Eligibility amendments
47%proxyn = 85sampled
Enrollment failure
27%n = 11,964concluded
Startup lag
74 dn = 11,192with dates
Median duration
32.7 mon = 17,733completed
Why these trials stoppedsponsor decision leads

The most common category here is sponsor decision (614 of 1452 stopped). A keyword pass runs first; free text it could not place was sorted once by a frozen AI classification into these same categories, auditable rather than a live model. "No enrollment recorded (inferred)" is not a stated reason: it is read from a zero enrollment count, meaning the trial never enrolled anyone. "Not reported" means the sponsor left the field blank, shown rather than hidden.

Sponsor decision614 (42%)
Safety or tolerability216 (15%)
Low accrual189 (13%)
Not reported168 (12%)
Efficacy or futility75 (5%)
No enrollment recorded (inferred)inferred31 (2%)
Other stated reason29 (2%)
Superseded by another study27 (2%)
Business or funding26 (2%)
Logistics or operations22 (2%)
External or regulatory14 (1%)
Technical or device issue10 (1%)
Never initiated8 (1%)
Change in standard of care7 (0%)
Feasibility or operational failure7 (0%)
Completed or objective met5 (0%)
Investigator decision or departure4 (0%)
n = 1,452terminated or withdrawn
Evidence12 trials

A sample of terminated or withdrawn trials in this cell. Each links to its ClinicalTrials.gov record.

TrialSponsorStatusStated reason
NCT07453446Shanghai Unicar-Therapy Bio-medicine Technology Co.,LtdwithdrawnBusiness or funding
NCT07196124Guangzhou Bio-gene Technology Co., LtdwithdrawnSponsor decision
NCT07196111Guangzhou Bio-gene Technology Co., LtdwithdrawnSponsor decision
NCT07159828Axion Bio, IncterminatedSponsor decision
NCT07150767Beijing Bio-Targeting Therapeutics Technology Co., LtdwithdrawnSponsor decision
NCT07123662Guangzhou Bio-gene Technology Co., LtdwithdrawnSponsor decision
NCT07121829Day One Biopharmaceuticals, Inc.terminatedSponsor decision
NCT07121244Radionetics OncologyterminatedSponsor decision
NCT07108140TCRCure Biopharma Ltd.terminatedSponsor decision
NCT07100925Ankyra Therapeutics, IncwithdrawnSponsor decision
NCT07093086Shanghai Unicar-Therapy Bio-medicine Technology Co.,LtdwithdrawnBusiness or funding
NCT07084584Galecto Biotech ABwithdrawnSponsor decision

Oncology at other phases